As any sports fan probably knows, there is an ongoing debate surrounding why Colin Kaepernick is not currently signed with an NFL team. There’s a list of analysts who argue that he simply isn’t that good and that his stats don’t really warrant a contract. The second are those who believe that the NFL and its owners are stonewalling him after his protests of the national anthem. In the end, I think it is more likely than not that by the end of the preseason Colin Kaepernick will have a job if he wants one. But the reason he doesn’t have a job right now? May be all of the above.
As the Dolphin’s decided their guy was Jay Cutler, the team most likely to give Colin Kaepernick a look is the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens coaching staff has given the Kaepernick signing a thumbs up, perhaps in part to the Harbaugh connection. Though he has denied it, ESPN reported that the reason the Ravens hadn’t pulled the trigger is because the Baltimore Ravens owner, Steve Bisciotti, was still resistant to the idea of having him on the team. Bisciotti asked fans to weigh in on whether they wanted him on the team, which in some way tips his hand that he wasn’t so enthused about Kaepernick’s actions during the last regular season. If he didn’t care then the team would probably be farther along in contract talks for Flacco insurance. Bisciotti has stated “I don’t like the way he did it personally. I like how he went from sitting to kneeling. I’m Catholic, and we’ve spend a lot of time kneeling.” That statement is a bit confusing but the point is simply that this is one owner who is very sensitive more to the reaction of his fan base and perhaps partially to his own conceptions and beliefs on the issue.
The reason the owners may be worried about fan backlash is a recent report from ESPN which stated as the headline that anthem protests were the leading reason why viewership in the NFL was down. Now there have been several articles on why that is not in fact the case, as the article leaves out some very crucial math regarding the simple fact that not all those who were surveyed actually reported watching less NFL games. But it is probably fair for owners to be worried about viewership despite that there are generally better explanations for the ratings trends in the past few years. Ultimately, the Baltimore Ravens like any team are a business and they will make the decision on Kaepernick based on the business reality of their organization. If Ryan Mallett doesn’t improve and Joe Flacco’s availability during the season is in question, the positive value Kaepernick brings increases.
The other factor in this decision is that Kaepernick is now competing for a backup quarterback role. And the market for backup quarterbacks is fundamentally different than that of starting quarterbacks. There are only a handful of quality, guaranteed starters in the league at this position. Every season, some teams will play quarterbacks who on almost any other team would be on the bench. Based on the post-Harbaugh performance from Kaep, I think it is safe to say that he is in this bubble type category. Could he be a viable starter for your team? Yeah definitely. But do you want that though? You probably want to do better. In the backup QB market, different teams have different requirements in what they are looking for. One team might want a young guy with development potential and promising skills, while another team might want a plug and play veteran who can keep your team afloat in an injury scenario. Kaepernick’s best statistics come either out of the pocket in broken plays where his athleticism can take over and in a shotgun read option system. To get the best out of Kaepernick, many teams would have to make significant changes to their offense and gameplan. The Ravens are very likely one of these teams as Flacco does most of his work from the pocket. This isn’t to dock Kaepernick who can work from the pocket. But if you ask Kaepernick to play like Flacco you will likely get last year Kaepernick which doesn’t make you feel great based on his turnover to touchdown ratio (4:1 but not including 7 fumbles) and completion percentage (59.2 percent).
In essence, there are probably other quarterbacks on the market that would provide a better backup fit for the Ravens then Kaepernick would. And this is just one other challenge he faces. Many analysts attribute Kaep’s early success to Jim Harbaugh and his run and read heavy offense. That isn’t an offense that is widely used anymore in the NFL. The best fit for Kaep would be a team that has a quarterback that offers similar advantages to what made him so good for the 49ers. Marcus Mariota in Tennessee has some similar skills (albeit I would say a superior passer) and Russell Wilson is similar in overall play style as mobility is an important part of his game. Kaepernick has been linked to the Seahawks as well and Richard Sherman has gone to bat for him on several occasions. The trouble is that the Titans have the NFL’s all time backup in Matt Cassel and the Seahawks picked up Trevone Boykin who is a hyper athletic development QB from TCU. Furthermore, Kaepernick is still not the only QB available with these traits. Robert Griffin III is also available and looking for work. You can certainly argue that right now Kaepernick is more polished. But the draw of RG3 is the underlying potential and youth. He’s made of glass but damn what if rookie season Baylor RG3 is still there somewhere?
Another issue that doesn’t get quite as much attention is that Kaepernick is not far removed from both a thumb and shoulder surgery. While he played last season and showed ability, I could see teams using this as one extra reason to look elsewhere, whether the real reason is political or not.
The final thing to mention is what is Kaepernick willing to take in terms of a salary verse what other QBs might take in salary. The later in the season it goes, the cheaper one would assume he would be. The flip side is that the later in the season it goes and the more injuries at the QB position rack up, the more desired he might become because the market for QBs shrinks as guys get signed. However we have also seen during the regular and preseasons, that free agency isn’t the only place quarterbacks come from. Many teams trade for their backups, whose contracts and salaries are set. So these contracts will ultimately determine the market price for Kaep regardless of his starting experience and ability.
Now FiveThirtyEight published an interesting article about the historical time frame which quarterbacks stay on the market. The article suggests that as good as Kaepernick has been, he has stayed a free agent far longer than almost any other quarterback of his caliber other than Michael Vick (and we should all know why he was not in the league). Kaepernick’s status as an outlier therefore is suggested to be evidence that there is some level of resistance based on something other than football. I agree in some ways to this analysis, but based on the reasons I’ve stated above, I would also say it is an oversimplification of the current quarterback market. This analysis takes Kaepernick’s QBR rating to come up with a comp set of quarterbacks to compare him too. I just struggle to think the NFL offices use QBR as the main qualifier or measure of a player’s ability to contribute. Ultimately every NFL team has detailed tape and notes on Kaep either from playing against him or for the event they will need to play against him. They have scouting reports, detailed statistics on all the different types of passes he throws, what plays he runs, and how effectively he runs them. Thus if QBR is not an accurate measure of what all 32 NFL teams value, then one of the underlying assumptions of this analysis is incorrect. Ultimately, I think it is more realistic that with 32 teams looking at QBs, there will be 32 different criterias for what that QB should bring to the table.
In sum, I am fairly certain that there are teams in the NFL that won’t sign Kaepernick for reasons that are in fact related to his protesting and political stances. I will not say that applies to every single NFL team. Some teams will distance themselves from him for either economic or political reasons. Many teams simply don’t need him or don’t want him based on fit and performance. With both of these explanations, you get a better explanation for why Kaepernick remains unsigned as neither analysis on its own seems to amply explain the ongoing saga of Kaep’s unemployment.
