So of course, I had been working on this article about why I believe the Cavaliers should trade Lebron James. And mid-sentence, I get a phone notification that Kyrie Irving wants out of Cleveland. Hence why writing about current events is so difficult. No matter how fast I write, I never seem to stay current.

In light that Kyrie Irving is no longer looking to play second fiddle and has requested a trade, it appears that the implosion of the Cavaliers that I was projecting for next season may be happening this season. Now the situation isn’t as dire as First Take wants to make it out to be, simply because they have Kyrie under contract for another two years. They don’t have to do anything with him. Kyrie must play. However, it is an indication that this roster is not mentally prepared to shoulder another deep playoff run and last season dispelled the notion that Lebron can carry a team to a championship. He can carry a team to the NBA finals. Mad respect. But Lebron, Kyrie, and the Cavaliers organization can see that the tumultuous offseason (which hasn’t even concluded) has left them even farther behind Golden State in terms of talent.

The problems with trading Kyrie Irving are numerous. To appease Lebron and keep him in Cleveland, you need to secure the assets that make you a better team now. Frankly, there aren’t a lot of players and packages that teams can offer which will accomplish that. I don’t think that a deal with the Knicks and another team which brings Melo to Cleveland is anything like what Lebron has in mind, regardless of how close he may be with Melo. The Suns are constantly linked to every team trying to make a mega-deal and while they may be interested in Irving, the trade offers Phoenix seems to be getting involve Joshua Jackson. Understandably the Suns have said he is not on the table as Joshua Jackson’s rooking contract is going to be way more affordable than Kyrie’s contract will be in 2 years when he can leave for anywhere. In two years the only team what will have a say on where Josh Jackson plays will be the Phoenix Suns.

The other difficulty is that any trade involving Kyrie Irving needs to involve the Cavaliers receiving a point guard to replace him. The Cavaliers are unique in that they probably don’t need an elite point guard to be successful on offense as Lebron can handle ball duties and Tyron Lue seems hell bent on running him into the ground. For all the talk about keeping his minutes down, Lebron is going to play 40 plus minutes a game. Still they will need a guard who can bring the ball up the court, stretch the floor, initiate the offense and defend at a moderate to high level. Even in a guard heavy league you don’t find many of those type of guys. Is Derrick Rose the answer? Maybe for half a season given his injury history. The point is I don’t think anyone in Cleveland is comfortable with DRose as anything more than Kyrie Irving insurance.

As far as future assets, if the Cavaliers look for picks in exchange for Irving, the chances of a full rebuild skyrocket. In this scenario, you trade for development players that may have high ceilings along with future picks, but generally these assets don’t provide the best chance of winning a championship now which is imperative as Lebron turns 33. Even worse, this leaves you in a terrible scenario where Lebron James can leave next year and you get absolutely nothing for him.

So before we talk the Lebron James trade scenarios, it’s important to mention that Lebron is one of the few players in the NBA with a no trade clause (that thing other than Phil Jackson that has prevented the Knicks from building a credible roster). It is hard or even impossible to imagine the Cavaliers convincing him to leave voluntarily. However, if Lebron has a mind to leave then doing that a season early and in a way where Cleveland fans won’t burn all those jerseys they just bought all over again, a trade might not seem like such a bad idea. I won’t profess to know what is going through Lebron’s mind or whether he plans on leaving next year or not. But if I were in Lebron’s shoes (I don’t own a pair otherwise I would be) then I would want to go to a contender and preferably one in the Eastern Conference. That leaves only a few teams. The first one that comes to mind isn’t so obvious. But hear me out.

Imagine a trade with Lebron going to a young and promising Sixers team. Are they contenders? The obvious answer is no, but the reality is we don’t really know. A healthy Sixers roster is a bubble playoff team now. An unhealthy Sixers team will be playing for a lottery pick.  There isn’t a lot in the middle. So, what would you like in a trade here? The answer is that there may not be one until December because the Sixers have a roster of cheap contracts. The wealthier contracts are free agents such as JJ Redick and Amir Johnson who just signed. The reason that is important is that Lebron is a $33 million contract. While the Sixers are one of the few teams with the cap space to handle that contract, a trade over $6 million in cap has to have a salary trade value within $5 million of one another. Basically, The Sixers would need to shell out half their roster to get to the $27 million in trade value they would need to make room for Lebron.

Once December rolls around, adding Lebron to the roster goes against everything that is encapsulated in “The Process”. But its tantalizing to consider Lebron playing alongside a combination of Embiid, Fultz, or Simmons. Is it as developed and ready as the current Cavs roster? Definitely not but Lebron will be the clear alpha dog and leader on a young and green squad which I think he could get a lot out of.

So the Sixers are a long shot (at best). What about the Celtics? They’re on the cusp of being a finals team. They’ve got a great coach, they just added Gordon Heyward, they have Isiah Thomas, and a roster of role players which Cleveland seems to always lack. They still have $5 million in cap to help absorb Lebron’s contract. But the key to a deal here would likely be Horford’s 3-year $27 million contract. I’m not sure if a deal gets done without him leaving to open room. On the flip side, Horford and picks are not a great value for the King (not even mentioning the real problem of playing Horford and Love together). Granted, there probably isn’t a trade out there that can give you “value” for what may be the greatest NBA player of all time (I say maybe to appease the Jordan fans here). What you would really need is a Herschel Walker type haul and then somehow turn all those picks into a new star and role players or better. That’s not easy to do in the modern NBA draft where in any draft class there are maybe 3 sure things and your fate is in the hands of a lottery.

After the Celtics there appears to be two teams left in the East that could facilitate a trade. The Raptors would need to give up DeRozen, picks, and probably something else but a deal with DeRozen could be financially viable. I would say good luck convincing Lebron to give up his no trade clause to play in Toronto but the selling point for the Cavs is DeRozen has four years left on his contract. That at least gives you some stability and a guy who positionally could fit in with Love and Kyrie.

In the East, the last team I could think of that may have a chance is the Wizards where Lebron gets to team up with John Wall. The only reason he might consider going there is if Bradley Beal is in the mix, but with the cap situation in Washington, my guess is any deal would need to involve Beal which would make it less attractive to Lebron, and even less attractive to the Cavaliers. I mean honestly what combination of assets could the Wizards offer to make Lebron for Beal seem like a fair deal.

So finally, I’ll pitch one last pipe dream and leave it be. Lebron to the Spurs. It’s not in the East. But we know Lebron has mad respect for Pop. San Antonio has something in the water cause it’s like the fountain of youth down there. They seem to find a way to extend the careers of their aging vets. The obvious problem here is the Spurs are already over the salary cap, and the obvious trade asset to use in Lamarcus Aldridge wouldn’t be overly enticing to the Cavaliers. But damn. Lebron and Kawhi on the court together?

But the other side of the equation is, what would a team be willing to give up for one year of Lebron and tons of new jersey sales? Different teams will give different answers so it is almost impossible to speculate. What’s more, let’s say either Lebron or Kyrie will leave Cleveland. Which one would draw more trade interest? Kyrie who is on the rise? Or one of the best to ever palm a basketball at the age of 32? The former will give you a guaranteed 2 years but has had to fight through several injuries. The latter has never had a significant injury but may only give you one year of play.

Another issue is we have seen the statistics regarding the Cavaliers when Lebron is on the floor versus the Cavaliers team when Lebron is not on the floor. There isn’t a large body of work from Kyrie Irving that suggest he will be able to shoulder total leadership of a team. I am not certain why that is aside from perhaps his defense. He is one of the best scoring guards in the league if not the best. But the Cavaliers simply don’t play well as a team in comparison to when Lebron is on the floor. But this is not to debate who is better. We all know who is better. This is an issue of team building where the Cavaliers organization has mortgaged their future to maximize the playoff hopes of the present. The Cavaliers may be need to make a decision between what could be their last credible run at a championship or focusing on the long term prospects of the team and keeping it competitive for seasons to come.

So as fun as it is to speculate, the more likely scenario is that they both begrudgingly play together in Cleveland, make a playoff run (they are way more talented than any other team in the East), and then fall to the Warriors. That outcome would set the stage for the next offseason where Lebron can see his options, leaving Kyrie with enormous bargaining power to negotiate an extension, turning Believeland into Kyrieland. Ultimately, the Cavaliers needs to lock down one or the other to a long term contract in order to stabilize the future of the organization. With both key players in flux, Cleveland will be a difficult sell as a free agent destination (which may explain why they were unable to land several big trades and players) and it may make it more difficult to retain talent in the future. The reality is Cleveland is a small market team without Lebron and Kyrie Irving there. They will meet the same market conditions that other small market teams like the Bucks, Timberwolves, and Thunder face where big cities, big audiences, and national visibility will not be potential selling points to free agent superstars. People want to play in Cleveland because Lebron and Kyrie are there and they have a ticket virtually punched for the Finals. Without them, Cleveland will need to rebuild through the draft and hope that another generational player comes their way to deliver a trophy.